Crucial decision for the American Elections – Is Trump going to be ruled out from the 2024 ballot?

Tensions are boiling these days in American society. The recent decision from the Supreme Courts of Colorado and Maine to scratch off Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot due to his role in the January 6th 2021 Capitol Insurrection are heating up this controversial debate that divides American politics. And in this mist of diverging stances, The Supreme Court has accepted, on the 5th of January 2023, to offer a binding nationwide decision that will clear up the uncertainty. This ruling, scheduled for the next couple of weeks, will finally decide if the 14th amendment, which states that anyone who ”engaged in insurrection or rebellion” is not compatible with running for president applies to Trump’s actions. Though, through this complex mess of judicial procedures, one thing is certain: whatever the ruling may be, it will definitely affect the election process and the very core of American society, which is preparing for the most decisive and divisive election it has ever seen.

On January 6, 2021, the United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. was attacked by a mob of supporters of the US president Donald Trump, two months after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election. They sought to keep Trump in power by preventing a joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College votes to formalise the victory of President-elect Joe Biden. The conclusion of the inquiry resulted that Trump’s Twitter call for the gathering was of crucial importance for the violent actions that followed, including the destruction of several valuable goods within the Capitol building as well as the need for evacuation of the congressmen and congresswomen. Five people died during the violent clash with the police and hundreds were injured. After an official impeachment for incitement of insurrection, Trump has now been removed from Colorado and Maine’s electoral ballots. But what will a negative decision for Trump from the Supreme Court look like ?

It is clear that so far Trump is the current Republican frontrunner to face Joe Biden in the 2024 election. And with his recent popular gainings, a national decision to make him incompatible with the candidate status will certainly ignite a wave of dangerous riots and protests just as the 2021 event unfolded, sociologists and political psychologists say. On the other side of the spectrum, a favourable decision will do nothing but validate the conservative rhetoric and will boost Trump’s credibility, not only in the eyes of Republican voters, but also in the still undecided population.

The United States has never been in its history as divided as it is today. And in a growingly  unstable global situation, filled with wars and unpredictable events, this heated debate is doing nothing but creating even more vulnerabilities. From the democrats and Biden’s perspective, this ruling is a chance to “save democracy” in the USA and to hold Trump accountable for his calls to subvert the result of the 2020 elections. Evidently, Donald Trump used this announcement to once again capitalise politically from it, arguing that the “radical left democrats” only want to “take away his freedom” because he’s not allowing them to take away the people’s freedom. 

In this ongoing back and forth debate some things remain clear: the 2024 election will be one of the most influential elections in the recent century due to the challenges that international security is facing. No one knows if banning Trump from the ballot is necessary in order to prevent him from winning, as the conservative rhetoric is implying. However, this decision will be a historic one, that will set precedence in American judicial records and political archives. It will categorically shake the electoral games for 2024, and maybe even decide the fate of the election as a whole.      

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